Unboxing Tomorrow wishes you a happy new year as we continue to explore the world of electronics, robotics, and communication systems!
This time of the year is a convenient opportunity to set new goals. If last year’s list (Technology Watchlist 2020-2030) is any indication; it’s more fun to look at a few technology growth trends that could define the next decade or so.
It is no surprise that the viral outbreak and the ensuing economic impacts derailed many plans and projections the industry had set just one year ago. Consequentially, many institutions (including governments) face a looming debt crisis and mass unemployment. From what I gather, we have only seen the tip of the iceberg. So consider this year’s predictions somewhat optimistic due to the ongoing recovery.
#1 IoT Security Extensions (Information Technology)
Unfortunately, cybercrime was one of the few activities not suppressed by the outbreak. In fact, the U.S. Department of Justice issued numerous advisories throughout the year warning consumers of escalating cyberattacks exploiting the virus.
But even if this had not been the case, we would have still seen a litany of threats to Internet of Things (IoT) microcontrollers; with the IT security firm F-Secure tallying 2019 cyberattack events in the billions. These small IoT systems have historically been prime targets for hackers, since their high specialization and low computing power made them soft targets compared to personal computers or servers.
Thanks to advancements in semiconductor fabrication, the industry now has numerous microcontrollers with cryptographic resources included in the device package itself. These include true random number generators (TRNG), one-time programmable (OTP) memories, and hardware accelerators for encryption and hashing.
All this will make security software extensions more popular, so long as informed consumers demand more secure update mechanisms and stronger data security.
#2 UVGI Disinfection (Life Sciences)
Ultraviolet germicidal irradiation (UVGI) light sources destroy pathogens on surfaces, air, and even some liquids.
Common UVGI light sources use light emissions from excited mercury vapor (and occasionally xenon). For the mercury atom, the two resonance lines of 253.7 nm and 185.0 nm are the most relevant. However, modern efforts to keep mercury out of the waste stream and out of air freight has spurred a research challenge into semiconductor-based alternatives.
LED-based UVGI sources do not present the neurotoxic hazards of mercury. And assuming they avoid the 185 nm photon, they would thereby avoid the polluting effects of ozone.
From this, we might also expect similar growth in UV detection and dosimetry. But ultraviolet (UV) radiation poses health hazards of its own. For this reason, I expect UVGI growth will remain concentrated within sectors best suited to deal with them effectively: such as healthcare.
#3 Unmanned Aircraft (Vehicular)
Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs, or sometimes simply ‘drones’) have become an extremely multi-disciplinary field, due in no small part to their growing roster of civil, commercial, and military end-uses.
Focusing strictly on the civil and commercial applications, I suspect the initial growth might be strongest in precision agriculture; which has been surprisingly ahead-of-the-curve in terms of vehicle automation over the past decade. Food security has become more than just a talking point to investors and has become a common value proposition for the agricultural UAV industry. UAVs used in this capacity already feature ultra-high-definition (UHD) or multi-spectral cameras for crop monitoring and yield predictions. The UAV sensors are being combined with other technologies such as machine vision—to spot plant diseases early enough for mitigation.
You might say growth in the broader drone market is also being evidenced now by the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration’s (FAA) recent Remote ID mandate. Added to the U.S. Federal Register on December 28th, 2020, it addresses the growing number of UAVs by requiring most drones to regularly broadcast their identity and other data.
#4 SerDes Chips (Semiconductors)
SerDes is short for serializer de-serializer. When two digital systems need to exchange high-speed data, they need to communicate over cable. The lightest and cheapest cables use the fewest conductor pairs they can manage (ideally just a single pair). Serializers and de-serializers specialize in moving high-speed data over this type of simplified cable.
- The serializer starts by gathering multiple bits (as parallel bits), before transmitting them each one at a time (as serial data), much like its predecessor: the shift register.
- The de-serializer at the opposite end of the link reverses the process; reconstructing the original data.
- Often, a clock signal keeps the two synchronized. Some SerDes part numbers embed the clock inside the data stream itself.
With filtering, a single coaxial cable or twisted wire pair can carry data, the clock, and electric power all at once. Under this model, SerDes chips can serve high-speed data cheaply, making them an essential part of physical layer standards like Gigabit Ethernet. When the cable is fiber optic, SerDes devices can use silicon photonics to even serve large scale data centers.
#5 Silicon Photonics (Semiconductors)
Global data centers were already trending upward before the outbreak. Demand has only continued as many companies pivoted to telework and online commerce out of necessity.
In the 20th century, phone networks replaced their copper cables with fiber optic lines. This overcame the crosstalk and other bandwidth-limiting properties of wired cabling.
Today, the field of silicon photonics hopes to deliver similar gains by merging silicon integrated circuits with semiconductor laser technology. This combination—implemented with SerDes—allows fast data transfer over long distances, with fiber data rates near terabits per second. Many of these systems also deliver power and data over a single fiber.
#6 Lab-on-Chip Microarrays (Life Sciences)
Microfluidic chips, or “lab-on-a-chip” implementations represent the cutting edge of disease detection due to their increasing sensitivity and reliability. As the name suggests, these sensors combine microscopic structures to capture fluid samples. From there, a number of immunoassay techniques may signal telltale signs of specific pathogens or biomarkers from a patient.
All these data can come from only a few nano-liters of analyte. Combine this with the accelerating field of machine learning, and it’s no wonder why I expect to see more growth in this area. Major outbreaks like this one always seem to draw attention to rapid medical testing technologies. The future of outbreak response will probably only accelerate the trend.
#7 Vehicle Charging (Power Electronics)
2020 was a record-breaking year for the electric vehicle (EV) market and EV charging equipment. This was in spite of the plunging crude oil and gasoline (petrol) prices seen during April and May.
Digital payment systems for EV charging stations are likely to benefit from the aforementioned secure microcontrollers. But more importantly, electric vehicle charging networks are hoping to expand beyond urban centers and further into retail areas and suburbs.
It is easily taken for granted, but gasoline is remarkably energy-dense at nearly 46 megajoules per kilogram, and widely available. A single 50-liter fuel tank represents a roughly 2.3-gigajoule chemical energy payload that an ordinary fuel station pump can deliver in seconds.
With this in mind, charging station enterprises face the already-high expectations of future car buyers who are used to having the rapid refueling experience anywhere they go. This has fueled an investment frenzy into powerful (120 kW and beyond) charging infrastructure, which I feel has only just begun.
#8 GaN and SiC Transistors (Semiconductors)
We often associate silicon with the leading-edge of semiconductor technology. But it was not always the semiconductor of choice. Not long after silicon replaced germanium, selenium, and copper oxide as the industry’s favored semiconductor material; gallium nitride (GaN) and silicon carbide (SiC) emerged to fill the high-power radio frequency (RF) amplifier roles that silicon could not.
For many years, SiC and GaN materials were relegated to niche applications like satellite communications and tactical radar. Today, new fabrication techniques are accelerating these wide bandgap materials into more mainstream applications.
While the GaN and SiC materials continue to see a sizable cost disadvantage compared to silicon (and higher defect rates), they outperform conventional silicon in notable performance areas. Namely, they have wide band gaps, excellent dielectric strength, and higher electron saturation velocity than silicon. Combined, these properties will deliver faster and more-durable generations of transistors to specializations like power electronics, electric vehicles, wireless energy, and wireless telephony.
#9 Asymmetric Computing (Semiconductors)
Already a staple for microprocessors, multi-core microcontrollers entered the commercial market in 2010. Since then, more semiconductor firms have added multi-core microcontrollers to their portfolios as their copious advantages became obvious.
Under this model, the two (or more) processing cores may operate independently or in concert. Many of these systems are asymmetric, having one processing core substantially more powerful or more specialized than the other. This asymmetry allows for purpose-driven pairings: with (for example) one core performing data-intensive tasks, and the remaining core(s) running real-time operations or peripherals.
I suspect this trend will only accelerate into the next decade as demand for deterministic or critically safe microcontrollers pushes asymmetric computing to greater heights.
#10 Vision Processing Units (Semiconductors)
Fields like autonomous vehicles and augmented reality (AR) rely heavily on low-latency machine vision algorithms. These systems use conventional and parallel computing architectures to perform machine vision functions like object detection, tracking, mapping, and image segmentation. Some rely on Cloud or Edge computing due to the sheer volume of data.
Vision processing units (VPUs) might streamline these machine vision functions much like graphics processing units (GPUs) did for 3D graphics many years ago. VPUs will likely dominate in the premium smartphone market first, where some VPU product lines are already in their second generation. We have also seen vision accelerator platforms that can apparently support machine learning frameworks like TensorFlow Lite, uTensor, and CMSIS-NN.
Honorable Mention: Counter-Drone Technology
Increasingly, drone-related incidents like the 2018 Gatwick Airport infringement have alarmed air safety officials and the public. Small unmanned aerial vehicles lack the detectability and the transponders of larger aircraft. In response, many governments and militaries have poured time and other resources into counter-drone technology, including:
- Drone-detection systems that track and classify drones, and;
- Drone interdiction systems that disrupt their flights.
Effective policymaking will distinguish between the large number of legitimate UAV use cases and the small number of bad actors who genuinely hope to cause harm. Some proposals (besides the recent Remote ID mandate) include embedded geo-fencing to prevent commercial drones from entering restricted airspace. Others have proposed a standardized “kill switch” feature that lets authorities immobilize any drone they deem threatening. This is a very niche application, but is one that may broaden abruptly if proven effective.
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